Article by jekky
(692, ‘Main points The global economy since 2004 has entered the high growth period thus boosting the prosperity of the global retail industry In 2007 the total size of the global retail market has more than 12 trillion U S dollars an increase of about 8 Entered in 2008 the global retail market as a whole continue to move forward but inflation has become the restrictions on the people the primary factor in consumer spending We believe that in 2008 global retail sales growth will slow down br br In the next few years China 39 s retail industry with its unique model of development will continue to share the upgrade of domestic economic growth and consumer benefits We believe that promoting the dominant factor in the development of the domestic retail industry should at least include the following the level of disposable income of urban and rural residents the process of urbanization the scale of the middle class and the social security system and so on br br World Bank predicts China 39 s 2008 GDP growth of 9 8 We believe that rapid economic growth in the retail market economy and prosperity has laid a solid foundation In 2008 China remained the world 39 s fastest growing retail market even excluding the price factor the domestic real growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods are more than 12 China 39 s retail market share of the world 39 s rising global leader in retail development has become a major force br br In 2008 A shares of the retail segment of the investment in the main line includes three aspects 1 inflation has significantly affected the consumer behavior of residents Moderate inflation is conducive to promoting the sale of the retail business growth inhibition of excessive inflation in the number of people actually spending the same time to change their consumption expenditures 2 The rapid growth of domestic consumption of luxury goods and great market potential help to enhance a number of high grade and high end department stores in the operating results 3 the forms of domestic grocery market and its own transformation will enable expansion of the size of some supermarkets and hypermarkets benefit br br Retail trade is a strong defensive investment plate Our basic idea is to find a stock picking those with super growth expectations and strong corporate profitability key recommendations Supply Chain Management 000 759 Suning Appliance 002024 Wangfujing 600 859 Guangzhou Friendship 000 987 and Intime Department Stores 1833 HK br br 1 Global Retail Retrospect and Prospect br World Bank data show that since 2004 the global economy has entered a rapid growth cycle 04 06 an annual rate of 3 25 is the early 70s of last century after a most robust growth In 2007 thanks to the U S subprime mortgage crisis global financial market upheaval but remains the world 39 s economic growth has shown a steady increase in the overall trend annual rate of 3 7 Entered in 2008 the international oil prices U S housing and consumer demand continued to weaken these factors promote global economic growth into the downstream channel the World Bank recently forecast a growth rate of 2 7 in 2009 to 3 br br Enhance economic growth the income level thus stimulating the expansion of consumer spending Retail trade as the biggest beneficiary of growth in consumption in recent years gained rapid development Information according to Deloitte 39 s report the world 39 s largest 250 retailers from sales to 2 6 trillion USD in 2003 up to 2006 39 s 3 25 trillion U S dollars 3 year compound growth rate of 7 7 well above the world GDP by speed PlanetRetail estimated that in 2007 the total size of the global retail market has more than 12 trillion U S dollars an increase of about 8 br br In 2008 the global retail market as a whole continue to move forward but inflation has become the restrictions on the people most important factor in consumer spending A Nielsen survey the global consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest point in recent years Oil prices and rising food prices weakening consumer 39 s purchase intention Low consumption directly affect the retail development We believe that in 2008 global retail sales growth will slow down br br Department store ‘)
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