by cardiffcastlequarter

The Q310 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR16.3trn (US3.0bn) in 2010 to INR25.0trn (US3.2bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population to improve mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 11.4%. India’s nominal GDP is a forecast at US.52trn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 7.8% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 1.19bn in 2010 to 1.25bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by over 75% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US,238. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US3 in 2010 to US,160 in 2014.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail market. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-orientated multinationals.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 154% to reach US.29bn by 2014. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US.86bn in 2010, with over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US.28bn. The latter is predicted to be the fastest growing retail sub-sector over the forecast period, albeit from a low base. BMI forecasts that sales will reach US.18bn by 2014, an increase of 88.5%.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth in the region, followed by China. For India, its forecast market share of 13.9% in 2010 is expected to increase to 14.3% by 2014.

by cardiffcastlequarter

The Q310 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR16.3trn (US3.0bn) in 2010 to INR25.0trn (US3.2bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population to improve mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 11.4%. India’s nominal GDP is a forecast at US.52trn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 7.8% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 1.19bn in 2010 to 1.25bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by over 75% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US,238. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US3 in 2010 to US,160 in 2014.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail market. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-orientated multinationals.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 154% to reach US.29bn by 2014. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US.86bn in 2010, with over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US.28bn. The latter is predicted to be the fastest growing retail sub-sector over the forecast period, albeit from a low base. BMI forecasts that sales will reach US.18bn by 2014, an increase of 88.5%.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth in the region, followed by China. For India, its forecast market share of 13.9% in 2010 is expected to increase to 14.3% by 2014.